COVID-19 University Simulator Home About

Initial Population Data

Timeline

Start simulation:
End simulation:

Starting Conditions

Enter population size:
Initial infections:
Infections from outside contacts (per day):
Trace and test initiation : Condition for trace and test initiation
(number of diagnosed cases)

Unit Costs (Per Person)

Symptom-based test:
Contact trace and test (per contact):
Mass test:
Quarantine (per day):

Scenarios Overview

Scenario Name Plan A Plan B Plan C
Transmission risk
(% per day)
Contact rate (per day)
Mass test (% per day)
Trace and test rate
(% per day)

Introduction & Guide

This is a simulation tool for evaluation of epidemic outcomes upon reopening of a residential university, under varying scenarios of transmission risk, contact rates, mass test, and trace and test. Enter initial population data (on the left) and scenarios (on the right).

Descriptions (Inital Population Data)

Initial infections:

Expected number of persons with undiagnosed infection on day 1 of reopening.

Infections from outside contacts (per day):

Expected number of infections through contacts with persons from outside the university population over the duration of the semester (per day).

Trace and test initiation (number of diagnosed cases):

Number of diagnosed cases before initiating trace and test.

Unit costs:

Cost per person (could include costs of equipment, infrastructure, personnel, etc.).

(Assumption: we assume persons diagnosed with infection are quarantined and isolated)

Descriptions (Scenarios)

Transmission risk
(% per day):

The chance of transmission per contact per day. Suggested estimates to use:
Baseline: 14% (11.6% - 17%);
With facemask-use: 7.8% (5.6% -11.1%);
With 6ft distancing: 2.8% ( 1.4% - 5.7%). (Estimated using: Relative risk from face mask use in non-healthcare settings: 0.56 (0.40 - 0.79);
Relative risk for every 1m distancing: 0.49 (0.26 – 0.93);
Source: Chu et al., The Lancet, 395(10242), 2020]
)

Contact rate (per day):

Average number of contacts per person per day.

Mass test (% per day):

Percent of the population to test per day.

Trace and test rate
(% per day):

Percent of the contacts to trace and test per day, equivalent to inverse of the time from infection to diagnosis and isolation.

Follow the links below for more information.

Scenarios

Plan A

Transmission risk (% per day):
1 17
Value:
Contact rate (per day):
1 25
Value:
Mass test (% per day):
0 100
Value:
Trace and test rate (% per day):
0 100
Value:

Plan B

Transmission risk (% per day):
1 17
Value:
Contact rate (per day):
1 25
Value:
Mass test (% per day):
0 100
Value:
Trace and test rate (% per day):
0 100
Value:

Plan C

Transmission risk (% per day):
1 17
Value:
Contact rate (per day):
1 25
Value:
Mass test (% per day):
0 100
Value:
Trace and test rate (% per day):
0 100
Value: